Colombia's Armed Conflict

The Crisis Watch group published a briefing on the Colombian civil war between the ELN, an insurgency group that is fed up with the government only serving elitist interests, and the the state of Colombia. Crisis Watch provided several "neutral" recommendations to all actors involved. Some of these included telling the ELN and the Colombian government to enter into ceasefire agreement, for both sides to continue the ELN peace talks, and the government to take the same approach as the former administration in dealing with the ELN. This, however, seems unlikely due to the nature of the new administration under Duque. Why would the ELN decide look to enter continue peace talks with an administration that is reportedly making greater and harsher demands of the guerilla group. Perhaps the ELN could be pushed to make concessions and hash out an agreement with the new administration due to the threat of renewed conflict and their weakened position. That said, I think the ELN will need a victory. While they may have to resort to drug trafficking, I believe the ELN will justify this action by blaming (and rightfully so) the repressive actions of the state. 

Thus, already unstable negotiations will come to a halt and the situation will likely deteriorate unless the government grants amnesty to prisoners that have been captured by the state. While unlikely under the new administration, President-elect Duque would be smart to strike a deal with granting amnesty because it would allow the government to establish a peace accord in Havana and and legitimize the party among the people. However, we cannot expect the President-elect to do anything short of wage a new war against the insurgency group. This is perhaps the worst news for civil society actors and organizations in the region as their soft power will most likely be unable to bridge the two warring factions.